Australia’s winter likely to be drier and milder than usual as El Nino kicks in

Queensland : Most of Australia can expect a drier and warmer than usual winter as the influence of an El Nino takes hold – although the first few days of the season won’t feel very balmy for many.
The latest three-month outlook released by the Bureau of Meteorology on Thursday shows the odds favour drier-than-average conditions for most of south-eastern Australia for June and for winter as a whole. South-west WA is an exception.The winter forecast is also for above-average temperatures for most of the country, particularly for overnight temperatures.”The pattern is fairly classical El Nino,” Andrew Watkins, manager of the bureau’s climate prediction unit, said.During El Nino events, high-pressure systems tend to sit over the continent, making it harder for clouds to develop and bring rain. “The further east, the more you’re seeing the dominance” of those systems, Dr Watkins said.The outlook is likely to make grim reading for many inland regions, particularly western NSW and Queensland – where more than 80 per cent of the state has already been declared to be in drought.
Cold snap
The prospect of a mild winter may be lost on many residents in south-eastern Australia as a strong cold front sweeps in over the weekend and into the first days of June.
The arrival of a large cool air mass “will bring a cold start to winter”, said James Casey, a meteorologist at Weatherzone.On current forecasts, Sydney may have its coldest trio of days since last August, with tops of only 17 degrees from Monday.For Hobart, the chill arrives a day earlier with three days of tops of just 10-11 degrees forecast from Sunday. Melbourne, too, can expect the mercury to struggle to get above 14 degrees from Sunday until Wednesday.The chill may not linger, though, with a broad high pressure likely to settle in. “Our second week [in June] is looking generally warmer than the start,” Mr Casey said, adding that mornings may still be nippy with largely clear overnight skies.
For winter as a whole, the odds favour day-time temperatures being above average, but less so than for minimums, the bureau said.