Fairfax-Ipsos poll: Tony Abbott’s remarkable budget bounce

Fairfax-Ipsos poll: Tony Abbott’s remarkable budget bounce

Perth : Tony Abbott’s battle-scared government has stormed back into contention on the back of a softer and “fairer” federal budget which has dissolved voter anger, papered over last year’s broken promises, and increased the prospects of an early election in 2015.In a stunning reversal of fortunes, the government and the opposition are now dead-even at 50/50 after preferences and Mr Abbott has shot into the lead as the preferred choice as prime minister ahead of Labor’s Bill Shorten.At 44/39, it is the first time Mr Abbott has led on that index since April 2014 – that is, before the disastrous 2014 budget – and the first time the government has been in a potentially election winning position since February of that year.It comes after a 2015 budget which was transparently designed to rebuild shattered trust with middle-Australia by placating small businesses and families and prioritising electoral concerns over worsening fiscal challenges.In the first Fairfax-Ipsos survey since that voter-friendly economic blueprint was handed down on Tuesday, the Coalition’s primary support has jumped 4 percentage points to a healthy 43 per cent, while Labor’s primary vote has gone the other way falling by 3 points to be just 35 – a mere two percentage points above its 2013 nadir in which it was hounded from office.Mr Abbott’s approval rating has improved by 8 percentage points since April to be sitting at minus 8 – only slightly lower than Mr Shorten’s which has worsened to be minus 4.The result vindicates those within the Liberal partyroom who pushed for a radical change of direction away from hardline policies, and were prepared to change leaders if necessary to bring it about.The more “political” second budget all but obliterated the excesses of 2014, playing down a still active $80 billion cut to states for schools and hospitals over the next decade, while dispensing with planned pension cuts from 2017, a harsh six month waiting period for the dole for under 30s, and minimising other negatives.It also contained a $10 billion package for families in the form of increased childcare assistance, and tax breaks for small business, including a new instant asset write-off of 100 per cent for all new equipment purchases of items up to a maximum of $20,000.Eight out of 10 voters think the business concessions are a good idea and a surprisingly high 22 per cent say they will personally use the provisions.
But voters remain opposed to the plan to cut Family Tax Benefits even though the government has made that a condition of the new childcare spending.Voters have given the budget a solid tick of approval, with more than half of those polled (52 per cent) declaring themselves satisfied and a third of voters saying they are not – 35 per cent, which is also the same as Labor’s primary vote base.

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