Politically damaging for Modi if BJP loses in UP

NEW DELHI : Prime Minister Narendra Modi may hope to ride out the demonetisation storm because his opponents’ lack credibility at the national level, apart from being divided, and because of the extraordinary patience of the ordinary people in accepting their inconvenience.
Furthermore, the fact that the people have retained their faith in the Prime Minister — till now — is evident from the series of election victories notched up by the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) in the municipal polls in Maharashtra, Gujarat, Rajasthan and Chandigarh.
True, the Trinamool Congress, which is perhaps Modi’s most trenchant critic, has also won several elections in its political hinterland, showing how the areas of influence of the various parties have become firmly demarcated. But Modi’s political clout is undoubtedly spread over a larger area.
Modi’s real test, however, will be in the Uttar Pradesh elections next year. More than the polls in Punjab, Uttarakhand, Goa and Manipur, which are likely to be held at the same time, the outcome in Uttar Pradesh will demonstrate how the BJP’s vikas purush (man of development) is faring half-way through his tenure. The test is all the more important because demonetisation is a part of the kind of economic reforms which Modi wants to introduce. Since his “sabka saath, sabka vikas” project of development for all hasn’t quite taken off, at least where employment generation is concerned, he is depending on his ability to curb the parallel economy and introduce a cashless system to help him cross the Rubicon of the next general election. In this respect, Uttar Pradesh has always played a major part in indicating the popular mood if only because it is a heartland state. Having lost Bihar, which is also in the Hindi-speaking “cow belt”, Modi cannot afford to lose Uttar Pradesh as well. Even if he cannot replicate his sterling performance of 2014 when the BJP won 71 of the 80 parliamentary seats in the state, and its partner, the Apna Dal won two, the two allies have to remain well ahead of its two major competitors — the ruling Samajwadi Party (SP) and the Bahujan Samaj Party (BSP).